TECH & NEWS

Part I: Detailed English Version of the Report

1. A “G-Zero” World

Core Argument: The world lacks clear leadership, leading to intensifying geopolitical instability. In this “G-Zero” context, no single country or alliance is willing or able to take responsibility for driving the global agenda and maintaining the international order.

• Key Risks: An expanding power vacuum gives “rogue” states (e.g., Russia, North Korea) more opportunities to disrupt global stability. International institutions (e.g., the UN, IMF, World Bank) lose influence, failing to reflect the current balance of power. Higher risk of miscalculation and conflict, including the possibility of a new global war.

• Background: Post–Cold War integration efforts failed to effectively integrate Russia into the global order, breeding deep hostility toward the West. China’s economic rise has not produced political liberalization, instead fueling tensions between China and the West. Domestic discontent in Western nations undermines globalism and makes it harder for countries to cooperate.

2. “Trump Rules”

Core Argument: In a hypothetical second term, former President Donald Trump would focus on consolidating personal power, reducing the independence of the administrative system, and increasing the unpredictability of policy implementation.

• Key Manifestations: Strengthening executive power through purges of “disloyal” members in the federal government. Appointing officials loyal to Trump to critical agencies (e.g., the DOJ and FBI) and possibly using executive power to target political opponents. Heightening crony capitalism, with rewards for political allies’ companies and punishments for business rivals.

• Potential Impact: A severe erosion of the rule of law and political norms in the United States. Heightened policy uncertainty for businesses and investors, who may increasingly rely on government connections rather than market competitiveness. A potential long-term decline in the attractiveness of the U.S. business and investment environment.

3. U.S.-China Relations Breakdown

Core Argument: The Trump administration (or a similarly confrontational U.S. leadership) would push a “non-managed decoupling” from China, potentially triggering an economic crisis.

• Key Developments: Imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 50–60%), exacerbating bilateral economic antagonism. Strict export controls and technological embargoes on Chinese companies, possibly extending to biotech and other advanced sectors. Intensification of tensions over Taiwan, raising the risk of military confrontation.

• Potential Outcomes: Global supply chains could be severely disrupted, driving up trade costs. Growing hostility and mutual distrust raise the danger of inadvertent escalation.

4. Trump’s Economic Policies

Core Argument: Trump’s economic agenda—such as raising tariffs and reducing illegal immigration—would push up inflation and slow U.S. economic growth.

• Key Policies: Trade Policy: High tariffs aimed at reducing the trade deficit, likely resulting in rising consumer prices and supply chain disruptions. Immigration Policy: Large-scale deportations of undocumented immigrants could cause labor shortages, further driving up wages and prices.

• Economic Consequences: High inflation could force the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates, dampening growth. Growing government debt and deficits add to the country’s long-term economic burdens.

5. Russia’s Rogue Behavior

Core Argument: Russia will undertake more asymmetric, destabilizing actions worldwide in an effort to weaken Western alliances.

• Specific Tactics: In Ukraine, Moscow might use ceasefires to solidify occupied territories but is unlikely to reach a lasting peace deal. Cyberattacks, election meddling, and information warfare to interfere in Western democracies. Strengthening military and strategic cooperation with North Korea and Iran, potentially providing advanced weaponry and technology.

• Main Risks: Escalating security tensions in Europe and increased pressure on NATO. Further deterioration of global order, fueling persistent instability and conflict.

6. Iran’s Vulnerability

Core Argument: Iran’s regional standing weakens sharply, with its key regional allies (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah) suffering major setbacks in the previous year.

• Current Situation: Iran’s economy is in turmoil due to Western sanctions and poor internal management, fueling domestic unrest. Its nuclear program may invite preemptive strikes from Israel or the U.S.

• Future Outlook: Iran may adopt more aggressive policies to divert domestic attention, potentially accelerating nuclear weapons development. Regional instability will rise considerably, especially involving Israel and Iran.

7. Global Economic Fragmentation

Core Argument: Protectionist policies in both the U.S. and China threaten global economic integration and accelerate geo-economic divisions.

• Key Developments: China subsidizes exports of industries such as electric vehicles and solar panels, undercutting manufacturing in other countries. Trump’s high-tariff strategy forces many nations to choose between the U.S. and China, further stressing the global economic system.

• Potential Consequences: Higher trade barriers increase costs, restrain economic growth, and undermine the stability of supply chains. Emerging markets face heavier debt burdens and limited policy options.

8. Artificial Intelligence Out of Control

Core Argument: Unregulated AI could be misused and pose new security threats, causing social instability.

• Major Risks: AI tools may be employed for malicious purposes, such as automated cyberattacks or large-scale manipulation of public opinion. Rapid technological shifts may outpace social adaptation, potentially causing large-scale job displacement and economic upheaval.

9. Regions of Anarchy

Core Argument: The absence of effective global governance leaves some regions in a state of anarchy, grappling with humanitarian crises and security threats.

• Key Manifestations: Areas with weak governance (e.g., parts of Africa and the Middle East) become havens for crime and terrorism. The international community lacks the means or consensus to intervene, worsening these crises.

10. A “Mexican Standoff”

Core Argument: Tensions between the U.S. and Mexico over trade and immigration could escalate, imposing major strain on the regional economy.

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